Interest Rate Risk Analysis
Duration Analysis
Getting Up To Speed on Duration Analysis - Part 1
by Tom Farin
March-April 1993
This is the first of a two part article on duration analysis. It covers the following issues:
- How duration is calculated
- How duration is used to predict the changes in an instrument's market value resulting from a change in market rates.
Getting Up To Speed on Duration Analysis - Part 2
by Tom Farin
May-June 1993
This is the second of two articles on duration analysis. It covers the following issues:
- Problems with duration analysis as a market value tool
- Convexity
- Duration drift
- Murphy's laws of retail financial institutions
Non-Maturity Deposit Rate Sensitivity Analysis
The Key Role of Core Deposits in Interest Rate Risk Analysis
Part 1: Pricing Retail Deposits and Services
by Tom Farin
March-April 1993
This is the first of a four part series dealing with evaluating the rate sensitivity of core deposits. This article deals with:
- Retail and wholesale market definitions
- Basic marginal cost calculations
- Effects of rate sensitivity on the marginal cost of funding
The Key Role of Core Deposits in Interest Rate Risk Analysis
Part 2: Developing A Core Deposit Pricing Analysis - Separating Rate-Sensitive from Non-Rate Sensitive Deposits
by Tom Farin
May-June 1993
This is the second of a four part series dealing with evaluating the rate sensitivity of core deposits. This article deals with:
- Philosophy for evaluating non-maturity deposit sensitivity
- Analysis of historical pricing practices
- Separating rate-sensitive from non-rate-sensitive customers
The Key Role of Core Deposits in Interest Rate Risk Analysis
Part 3: Developing Decay Rates and Identifying Transaction Account Cash Flows
by Tom Farin
July-August 1993
This is the third of a four part series dealing with evaluating the rate sensitivity of core deposits. This article deals with:
- Decay rate philosophy
- Decay rate calculation
- Using decay rates to generate cash flows for gap reports
The Key Role of Core Deposits in Interest Rate Risk Analysis
Part 4: Applying Discount Rates and Marking Core Deposits to Market
by Tom Farin
September-October 1993
This is the fourth of a four part series dealing with evaluating the rate sensitivity of core deposits. This article deals with:
- Developing amount and timing of principal and interest cash flows
- Computing all-in cost of funds
- Applying a discount rate to mark the cash flows to market
- Managing value of core deposits
Hedging Option Risk in Fixed-Rate Mortgages - With Core Deposits?
By Tom Farin
January-February 1994
In this article, Tom Farin looks at the effectiveness of using non-maturity deposits as a hedge against the interest rate risk in long-term assets like fixed-rate mortgages.
- The basics - core deposits as a funding source for fixed-rate mortgages.
- Price response of passbooks to changes in market rates.
- Demand response of passbooks deposits to change in market rates.
- Income simulation effects - spreads between passbooks and fixed-rate mortgages.
Core Deposit Analysis - An Update - Part 1
By Tom Farin
January-February 1995
In this first article of a two-part series, Tom Farin looks begins an update of the core deposit series produced in 1993. This article updates material presented in previous issues.
- Core deposit rate sensitivity - theory versus reality.
- Conducting a pricing survey.
- Evaluating the effect of pricing on volume.
- Drawing conclusions from the price/demand study.
By Tom Farin
April-May 1995
In this second part of a two part series, Tom Farin introduces a more sophisticated method for calculating decay rates on non-maturity deposits. The method considers changes in the mix between rate-sensitive and non-rate sensitive funds that occurs over time with fluctuations in market rates.
- How to treat rate-sensitive money differently than non-rate sensitive money.
- Calculating decay rates for non-rate sensitive money.
- Separating new money from old money.
- Calculating gross decay rates.
- Evaluating trends in gross decay rates.
- Separating rate-sensitive from non-rate sensitive money.
- Finalizing decay rates.
Hedging Option Risk in Fixed-Rate Mortgages - With Core Deposits?
By Tom Farin
January-February 1994
In this article, Tom Farin looks at the effectiveness of using non-maturity deposits as a hedge against the interest rate risk in long-term assets like fixed-rate mortgages.
Discount Rates
Focus on Market Value Requires Attention to Discount Rate Methodology
By Tom Parliment
May-June 1993
Tom goes through the methodology for valuing a financial instrument.
- What is market value and why is it important?
- Defining an appropriate discount rate for use in valuation.
- Adjusting for risks and costs.
- Sources of discount rates - the secondary market.
- Single discount rates verses using the yield curve.
Setting Discount Rates For Market Value Calculations
By Tom Farin
November-December 1994
Tom Farin looks ways of establishing discount rates to be used in market value calculations. A variety of alternatives are examined with the advantages and disadvantages of each explained.
- Overview on valuing financial instruments.
- Using a single discount rate in calculating market value.
- Building single discount rates from risk and cost components.
- Problems with use of single discount rates.
- Using a yield curve to mark instruments to market.
Prepayment Assumptions
Documenting and Supporting Prepayment Assumptions
By Tom Farin
January-February 1994
Tom Farin looks at methods for calculating, documenting, and supporting prepayment assumptions used in interest rate risk management calculations.
- External sources of prepayment assumptions.
- Building prepayment speed assumptions from internal data
- Calculation steps and data sources.
- Extrapolating from the data and building assumptions.
Total Rate of Return (TRR)
Integrating Total Rate of Return Into Dynamic Interest Rate Risk Analysis
By Tom Farin
March-April 1994
In this article, Tom Farin looks at total rate of return analysis (TRR). In the first part of the article TRR is used in ranking a series of investment opportunities. He then suggests how it might be integrated with interest rate risk analysis.
- Using total rate of return as a free standing tool - in making investment decisions.
- Calculating TRR on investments in different rate environments.
- Integrating total rate of return with dynamic IRR analysis.
Using Simulation Technology to Model Total Rate of Return
By Tom Farin|
March-April 1994
Tom Farin looks at how a simulation model might be used as a tool in extending TRR analysis to the entire balance sheet.
- Selecting the holding period.
- Selecting the rate environments.
- Calculating P&I Cash flows.
- Making reinvestment assumptions.
- Valuing financial instruments.
- Calculating TRR.
- Calculating weighted TRR and ranking instruments.
The article shows how the calculations were performed in arriving at the rankings In Tom Parliment's 'Searching for the Virtuous FRM' article.
Searching for the Virtuous FRM
By Tom Parliment
March-April 1994
Tom Parliment talks about the advantages and disadvantages associated with putting fixed-rate mortgages in your portfolio at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. Total rate of return analysis is used in ranking alternative loans that might be placed in an institution's portfolio under different interest rate environments.
- Typical 10, 15, and 30 year FRM cash flows.
- Valuing a variety of mortgage products under different rate environments.
- Calculating TRR on these products under different rate environments.
- Drawing conclusions from the analysis.
This article is included in this section as it applies TRR techniques covered in the previous article to ranking mortgage loan choices
Using Total Rate of Return Analysis to Evaluate Alternative Funding Sources
By Tom Farin
May-June 1994
In this article, Tom Farin extends the concept of TRR to choice between funding alternatives. In the Fort Knox savings & Keep example, he looks at three alternative ways of funding growth.
- Why TRR can also be used in evaluating alternative funding sources.
- Fort Knox Savings & Keep - base institution.
- Using TRR to evaluate alternatives in funding growth.
- Raising rates on existing deposits.
- Borrow from FHLB.
- Purchase a branch.
- Conclusions drawn from the analysis.
Total Rate Of Return - Does it Make Sense in Evaluating HTM Portfolios?
By Tom Farin
September-October 1994
In this article, Tom Farin looks at the issue of whether it makes sense to use TRR analysis when managing portfolios that are held to maturity and therefore will see no fluctuation on book value.
- TRR Investment example.
- Impact of FAS 115 on TRR.
- Held-to-maturity election.
- Available-for-sale election.
- Trading election.
- Opportunity cost associated with holding under water securities.
Market Value Risk Measurement
Developing a Dynamic Interest Rate risk Management Program - Part 2
by Tom Farin
November-December 1993
This is the second of a two part series on moving interest rate risk management from static to dynamic.
- Kinds of rate shocks to be used in stress testing
- Income testing
- Market value testing
- Establishing income and market value policy limits
- Documenting thought processes
This article is cross referenced in this section because it introduces a method for using a simulation model for market value testing. Other articles in this series are under Interest Rate Risk Policy.
Developing Interest Rate Risk Policy Limits - Part One
by Tom Farin
November-December 1994
This is the first of a four part series on establishing interest rate risk policy limits, written by Tom Farin. It examines regulatory initiatives including FAS 115. Then it looks at the use of both income and market value measurement systems.
- What kind of risk are we attempting to measure?
- Market value risk - bank, thrift and credit union regulatory initiatives.
- How FAS 115 affects the situation.
- What kind of measurement system to use.
- Evaluating effects of rate shocks on income.
- Evaluating effects of rate shocks on market value.
CD Wars: Valuing Depositor Relationships - Part Two
By Tom Parliment
Tom Parliment looks at the effect on franchise value of attracting retail deposits at sub-wholesale rates.
- The value of being able to raise depositor funds at sub-wholesale funding rates.
- Determining a bogey for valuing deposits.
- Calculating the effect of different pricing strategies on franchise value.
Pricing to grow the balance sheet. - Factoring in the effect of competitor response.
This article is listed in this section because it focuses on managing market value of funding. Remaining articles in this series are in the Deposit Pricing section.
Selling Retail Options: Part Two
by Tom Parliment
July-August 1995
In the second part of this two part series, Tom Parliment lays out how to value options embedded in retail financial instruments.
- Frequent user discounts.
- Estimating value of prepayment and variable-rate options.
- Estimating value of prepayment and pop-rate options on deposits.
The reason this article is in this section is that it lays out an approach for valuing options in retail financial instruments. The other article in this series is in the ALM Strategies section.
Managing The Value of Your Bank
by Tom Parliment
January-February 1996
In this article, Tom Parliment lays out the math for determining whether stockholders should retain bank stock (Hold) or sell bank stock (fold). Both valuation theory and assessing issues that will affect future values are discussed.
- Keys to valuing a bank
- Project earnings.
- Reviewing generic market valuation data.
- Estimating trading value.
- Estimating acquisition value.
- Calculating alternative rates of return.
- Deciding whether to 'hold' or 'fold'.
Market Value – It’s Not Just a Regulatory Compliance Tool!
By Tom Farin
January-March 2001
In this article, Tom Farin discusses the value of both income simulation and market value analysis in evaluating risk/return tradeoffs in alternative strategies for improving an institution's performance. Along the way, he explains, models and evaluates a solution to the short-term problems in the MissFed case.
- Historical perspective of regulatory initiatives on market value
- Alphabet soup of terms - MVPE, NPV, EVE, Value at Risk
- Why market value measurement systems were imposed.
- What income simulation won't tell you.
- MissFed Case solution - an example.
- Market value risk - long term effect of rate shocks on income.
- Moving toward dynamic analysis.
- Income simulation.
- Market value testing.
Income Simulation
Developing a Dynamic Interest Rate risk Management Program - Part 2
by Tom Farin
November-December 1993
This is the second of a two part series on moving interest rate risk management from static to dynamic.
- Kinds of rate shocks to be used in stress testing
- Income testing
- Market value testing
- Establishing income and market value policy limits
- Documenting thought processes
This article is cross referenced in this section because it introduces a method for using a simulation model for net income testing. Other articles in this series are under Interest Rate Risk Policy.
Developing Interest Rate Risk Policy Limits - Part 1
By Tom Farin
November-December 1994
This is the first of a four part series on establishing interest rate risk policy limits, written by Tom Farin. It examines regulatory initiatives including FAS 115. Then it looks at the use of both income and market value measurement systems.
- What kind of risk are we attempting to measure?
- Market value risk - bank, thrift and credit union regulatory initiatives.
- How FAS 115 affects the situation.
- What kind of measurement system to use.
- Evaluating effects of rate shocks on income.
- Evaluating effects of rate shocks on market value.
Developing Effective Interest Rate Risk Policy Limits - Part 2
By Tom Farin
January-February 1995
In this second of a four part series, Tom Farin looks the impact of portfolioing poorly priced ARMs in a rising rate environment. Many institutions fall outside interest rate risk policy limits. He suggests dynamic interest rate risk analysis as a took to buy time.
- Why ARMs can perform poorly in rising rate environments.
- How institutions portfolioing ARMS can be hurt more by rising rates than those portfolioing fixed-rate mortgages.
- How time can heal an interest-rate risk wound.
- Using dynamic interest rate risk analysis as a tool to buy time to solve and interest rate risk problem.
Developing Effective Interest Rate Risk Policy Limits - Part 3
By Tom Farin
April-May 1995
In this third article of a four part series, Tom Farin lays out an approach to establishing income oriented policy limits. He then describes how a simulation model can be used as a dynamic measurement tool to evaluate an institution's performance relative to its limits.
- Tradeoffs between income and market value limits.
- Income limit focus - dynamic interest rate risk modeling.
- Relationship between income limits and other financial goals.
- Practical issues in implementing net income limits.
Developing Effective Interest Rate Risk Policy Limits - Part 4
By Tom Farin
July-August 1995
In part 4 of this four part series, Tom Farin discusses how to establish market value oriented policy limits. He also points out some inconsistencies between the message provided by market value measurement systems and the reality of running a real world institution.
- Regulator focus on market value - it rests on finance theory.
- Las Vegas Bank example.
- Inconsistencies between income simulation and market value analysis results.
- Dealing with the regulator.
- Dealing with being outside your limits.

